griff.works

As it happens, tomorrow is the 75th anniversary of TRINITY. On July 16, 1945, at a minute shy of 5:30am, the Manhattan Project conducted a test that was code-named Trinity, where the United States detonated the first atomic explosion in the history of the world. In doing so, scientists and engineers proved they could release the destructive energy equivalent to 44 million pounds of TNT in a single explosion. The explosion created temperatures so high that they had never occurred on the planet in the history of The Earth itself.

Leading up to the test, many equations predicted that these temperatures would be so high that a runaway chain-reaction could:

Ignite. The. Atmosphere.

and thus: End. Life. On. Earth.

These days, we know that didn’t happen, but a fair bit of math, once upon a time, seemed to suggest that lighting that fuse wasn’t so smart. But we lit it anyway. And in doing so, a single nation’s govenrment, covertly and without any public debate–took mankind into a new era — one where humanity itself became its own source of Existential Risk.

Prior to Trinity, threats to human extinction were generally of the super-volcano/meteor impact variety. Since Trinity, extensive biotech research into biologics like viruses, has resulted in the establishment of super-secure research facilities (“BSL-4” or “P4” sites)  containing and experimenting on pathogens that–if released–would pose a threat to the survival of the human race. Of concern as well are changes to the climate as a result of our continued use of fossil fuels and the release of methane into the atmosphere, and the continued diminishment of the environment writ large as a result of human expansion and the diminishment of the wild across the globe. And then there is A.I.

Humanity has existed for about 200,000 years. Toby Ord’s latest book, The Precipice, asks us to consider those 200,000 years of history as well as the countless millennia that humanity might yet endure — particularly, as he argues, if we can just make it through this problematic era where for the first time in our history we have the means to destroy ourselves, in so many ways, and for so many reasons, that we have become our own greatest extinction risk. “How we react to that risk is up to us” he writes. (never really discussing the idea of power asymmetry)

This is not a bad book. But it is not a good book, either. It is frankly too long, too laborious in parts and not at all succinct, even if it is only 241 pages (with 209 pages of appendices, endnotes and bibliographies). But the ideas it reckons with are important – hell, they’re existential. The threats discussed, both natural and anthropogenic, are presented fairly as best as I can tell. In fact, the author probably strived too hard to show his math on the topics to be honest; stipulating the figures and just rolling with the general ideas is likely the only way most readers pressed for time in any way will interact with the arguments.

TL;DR: seems legit tho.

I suspect many considering reading the book might not have hopes for humanity beyond what their own experiences of it has proved itself to be, but Toby Ord does a good job of expanding the idea of the potential of what humanity could become. The stakes. That which could be lost. And he is convincing; in a thousand or more generations almost anything is possible — so long as the generations before did not destroy that potential (or set into motion a cascade that would inevitably destroy it). The work is well argued, exceedingly well–reasoned.

I can’t imagine this book being for everyone; which is a bit of a disappointment, as there is no one alive who the topic isn’t suitable for. But this book would be recommended for anyone interested in surveying current risks to either civilization or to humanity itself. The hypotheticals are worth it; the narratives of real-world pathogen escape events from BSL-4 facilities, and points in our recent history when nuclear exchanges were inarguably a very real possibility–if not a likelihood–are also worth it. Or the book might be equally great for anyone interested in a few well-reasoned ideas of what the future could look like if humanity really got it together. Alternatively, the book may also be of use for individuals interested in ethics, particularly intergenerational ethics.

If you read the book, I would be very interested to hear what your thoughts were.

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The latest title from Masha Gessen might reasonably be found in any stack of recent books speaking to the deficiencies of the current administration. There is no shortage of titles on that topic, but Surviving Autocracy stands apart with distinction due to both the depth and the precision of its analysis of American politics, processes and institutions during this moment. While many recent books provide details of previously unreported events, Ms. Gessen speaks primarily to what has always been in plain view since the beginning of Trump’s foray into civic life, and does so in a way that provides both insight and tools to more effectively understand, and thus evaluate, the changes occuring in the political culture of the United States.

She draws on the scholarship of many countries in the former Soviet-bloc which saw instances of political realignment towards autocracy during/after the decline/collapse of the Soviet Union. She also clearly draws on her close observations of her native Russia. Most notably though, she draws on an incredibly keen analytical skillset to evaluate and explain events, stripping away what might generously be understood as lazy language or indequate terms and metaphors which are generally (or have been generally) used to describe various circumstances or events. On this latter point alone, I would recommend the book; the rigor of rational analysis contained is a fine example to behold and in my estimation would be a useful touchstone to have for almost anyone’s analysis of topics they find meaningful.

The claim is not made that the United States is an Autocracy, only that what has been happening in front of us over these last three years should be understood as an ‘autocratic attempt‘ — an attempt to consolidate political power with a single individual. Even if one assumes that this attempt will fail, her argument proceeds, if there is a belief that Democracy winning the day is inevitable, the extents to which the autocratic attempt has been successful to date should serve as a dire warning, demanding re-evaluation of the assumed resilience of our institutions and political culture to sustain a Democracy.

Many reader-reviews of this book seemed to focus on a lack of steps or actions provided by Masha Gessen to “survive autocracy.” The frequency of this notion did make me skeptical of the fidelity to the topic implied by the book’s title (the bait and switch from title to text is an ongoing annoyance of mine) however, the criticism (such as it is) seems absolutely unwarranted. A fair amount of insight and utility is there for any individual who is less interested in what to think and more in terms of how one might think more critically. But beyond that, the book as a whole seems more properly understood–in terms of its title at least–as applying to the project of Democracy itself… how it, through us, resists the forces currently pulling the nation toward an Autocratic government. This resistance requires clearness of thought, precision of expression, resistance to the politics of humiliation, an adherence to the importance of moral leadership and ethical conduct in civic life, and a refusal to allow xenophobic impulses to diminish the scope of who is “we” and who ‘us’ defines in this common project.

I recommend this book.

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Spotify playlist for June is public: 

• Xavi Bou is a fellow from Spain who grew up fascinated by the movements of birds, most often captured by photographers in single shots of murmurings, but Xavi has found a way to do something a little more interesting. His portfolio Ornitographies is proof that it’s not the camera, it is the imagination with which you use it.

• The NYTimes reports that 239 scientists from 39 countries are publishing an open letter to the W.H.O. this week outlining the evidence for airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2in ‘a scientific journal.’ (a) the name of the journal would have been nice as part of the story and (b) I am eager to read this. I am highly susceptible to confirmation bias on this topic, but would like to sit with the evidence they present.
• In two weeks and one day, this thing will launch to Mars:

The Perseverence Rover will be looking for geologic clues to the past on Mars, including signs of water, and if present, should have the tools to detect signs of microbial life in the fossil record. I almost expect it to find incontrovertible proof of life; the current moment seems almost too much for society to bear, so as such I expect reality to pile on with perspective-anihiliating discoveries to boot.

This weltanschauung will self-destruct.

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As an aside, the lake below was not on my route, but storm clouds rolled in fairly quickly the afternoon this was taken & I decided to seek shelter rather than carry on. Heading in the opposite direction from my intended destination, I landed here at the closest source of water and set up camp for the evening. For having lost about four hours of hiking time that day, the scenery provided significant compensation.

Arrived home last night from a solo five day trek through the Northern Sierra. Made a loop that ended up being just shy of 50 miles surveying the deeper parts of a Wilderness I had not yet been that far into.

Photos from the week:

Julieanne Kost is a Digital Imaging Evangelist and Director at Adobe. I know the name because her video tutorials taught me many of the basics of Adobe Photoshop many years ago. I never saw any of her photography work before tonight but WeAndTheColor had a link with her name on it recently and this paragraph or two is my earnest attempt to pay the kindness of stumbling onto it forward. Whether manipulating multiple images to create surreal or heavily processed dreamscapes, or playing with color and contrast in subtle ways to great effect, her work is refined, measured and worth consideration. (I would love to know what Minor White would say about these.)

If you have not clicked any links above, do yourself a favor by checking out her website. Her photography is impressive.

Also impressive is Mas Ergorov and his YouTube channel Advoko Makes. Max is a recently retired defense attorney from St. Petersburg who has some land in Karelia, Russia, “away from roads and people”, where he has built a log cabin using a chainsaw and hand tools. His channel is all about the making of that cabin, its steady improvement and other bushcraft tips and tricks on how to engineer in the woods, all alone with minimal equipment. Bushcraft YouTube it turns out is very interesting — and somehow, relaxing.

In a different corner of the world, Tolgahan Çoĝulu built a microtone guitar for his son using 3-D printed and other assorted Legos. (i love this)

Hearing him play Albeniz’s Leyenda — a song I’ve flirted with unsuccesfully for maybe 30 years?–and so well — on a fretboard made of Legos! — is kind of complicated for me. The man has chops.

Percival Everett sounds like an interesting guy who has done a lot of different things in his day. I’ve never read his books, but I do have an interest in his latest book(s) Telephone. Percival wrote three different versions which were published with no easy way to distinguish which version of the story any reader is actually holding. The publisher, true to this intent of the author, when sending advance copies to Award Committees and the like, sent the same committee members books at random virtually ensuring that the committee would not be discussing the same story. I have never been a part of a book club (with the exception of every class in college, ever) but I would probably like to sit in for something like that.

Speaking of unusual stories, did you hear the one about the 6 E-Bay executives and contractors who were charged this week for cyberstalking a couple who left bad reviews online? These geniuses were mad cuz words online and decided to expense flights to Boston, spend money on multiple hotel stays, rental cars and fund a whole smörgåsbord of stupidity in various strategies to harass this couple for weeks on end. They now face five years in prison and a $250,000 fine.

Finally, If you need a(nother) laugh:

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if i have to go in, i can at least bring a camera.

The Ferry Building, 12:20pm, Tuesday June 16, 2020

TransAmerica Redwood Park, 12:50, Tuesday June 16, 2020

Book Store, “open for business”, 12:25, Tuesday June 16, 2020

Patio seating, near Pier One, 12:35, Tuesday June 16, 2020

When I was finishing college, I was fairly certain that if I “went post-grad” I was going to  study Ideological Distortion somewhere [at a more famous school] and continue down an academic rabbit-hole introduced to me by a professor who mentioned Karl Mannheim’s work to me once in a passing conversation. I was no doubt going to unlock the key to a politics of reason whereby each of us would be able to reckon together as rational people and affect policy decisions clear-eyed, level-headed and free from the burdens required to maintain membership within a political group. As a result of this scholarship, partisanship would falter, talk radio would have become more civil, cable news would become downright scholarly, disingenuous paid political advertising would come to naught, citizens–armed with more signal and less noise–would become increasingly knowledgeable, mastering broader domains, more deeply, and a new era of civic engagement would flourish. A political Rennaisance to remake the world.

Basically, because of my research papers.¹

So it is 2020 and I did not go to graduate school. I did not write those papers. I did inadvertently retain the interest in these same types of ideas however: Ideological Distortion. Motivated Reasoning. Cognitive Dissonance. (‘social reasoning’ and ‘identity-based reasoning’ lately)

Probably as a coping mechanism though–assuming it was not always thus.

My longest-running, most consistent topics of interest center around finding ways to explain why otherwise intelligent and rational people arrive at precisely the wrong decision – and why really smart people steadfastly believe in nonsense.^{2, 3}  Particularly after exposure to evidence that contradicts their belief. And–most importantly– in a way that allows for the possibility that they are just wrong — and not malicious.

Wrong you can work with; the inimical is different kettle of fish altogether.

And since we are stating the obvious here, the problem of maliciousness does seem to appear to be surging of late, no? A sort of Age of Malevolence is upon us — ushering forth disinformation, trolling, gaslighting, conspiracy theory, lies, etc., at unheard of levels. Meanwhile, a negative politics is simultaneously ascendent–folks less interested in what the best outcomes might be just so long as the other group “loses.”  The problems aren’t getting any easier: Syria, Antibiotic resistance, Global Warming and Sea Level Rise, Sustained Racial Inequalities and Subsequent Unrest, Habitat loss, Extinction, Sustained Economic Disparity (and its inevitable unrest), Pandemics, Nuclear proliferation, a lack of Global Leadership — all while this politics adds to our troublesome millieu.

May we[sic] live in interesting times.

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¹ and mildly amusing footnotes?

² this isn’t about you obviously; your world view is seamless and well-reasoned and your behavior is, frankly, impeccable.

³ like mine

I’m probably not going to be writing too much in the near short term. Obviously there is a lot happening at the moment and I am tending to think reading more than I write is probably the best thing I can do.

I do know enough however to unequivocally write Black Lives Matter. I also plainly see the very legitimacy of many police departments across the country coming under further scrutiny– or even just the simple observations–of their own actions. I also feel that radical change — through the political process even — is not just justified, but is probably inevitable in many places at this point.

The pandemic also continues.

PLAYLIST LINK: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/18AgmCmRwjJawbY4Zs5rtm?si=k6A8QCR-T2a4upv8WAbKLQ

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A lot of chatter in the pundit class has arisen concerning Biden’s campaign being conducted while social distancing–“from a basement” is how I read some of the worried commentary.

I’ll just say that as long as the central issue in the election is about trump’s performance in office, Biden could basically do this from the pool.

https://youtu.be/kOhs-tzVm1g

When all you have to do is roll footage, it makes it kind of easy. Obviously it is a long way to November, but the poll numbers don’t look good for the incumbent.