Gas prices and inflation, coupled with the mid-term curse, should make it a banner year for the GOP. Despite that, I guess the Republican Party will be limited to about a +20 change in the House and +3 change in the Senate. I suspect that the Dobbs v. Jackson decision and the selection of some really horrible candidates in the primaries will likely drag on what could have been an actual wave election. I’m probably around 10% less bullish on GOP prospects than FiveThirtyEight. In recent elections going back to 2018 (IIRC) they have overestimated Democratic Party performance, however. If that trend held, it would be an absolute Tsunami by the GOP this cycle, and I am way off the mark (it wouldn’t be the first time).

Moving forward on my assumptions, Kevin McCarthy will be the Speaker, McConnell the Majority Leader. I expect Pelosi to retire – I’m not sure what keeps Steny Hoyer around, either. I would expect McConnell to be realistic involving things like the debt ceiling, budgets, government shutdowns, etc., and advance his judicial project to the best of his ability, but the House is a different kettle of fish altogether. I am still trying to imagine how McCarthy (of all people?) will manage must-pass legislation. Particularly while adhering to the Hastert Rule – which is a dumb rule, fwiw – and avoiding a leadership challenge or abject failure. Facetiously, the happiest day of John Boehner’s life was the day he dropped the gavel. Paul Ryan picked it up and quit politics shortly after that. My guess is that earmarks and pork-barrel spending are McCarthy’s only shot, but if he doesn’t enjoy his first few days as Speaker, I suspect the entire tenure will be joyless.

PBS Newshour recently reported that 51% of GOP candidates this cycle are election “deniers or doubters.” The overwhelming majority of these candidates are in safe seat districts and on a glide path toward public office. The 118th Congress will have far more representatives beholden to convenient fictions than even the 117th Congress did. Accordingly, I am unclear on how the leader of such a party can effectively govern in a world of uncomfortable realities. The Circus part is coming; the bread, probably not so much.

My prediction would be that at a minimum, the country is in for debt ceiling drama (and a possible default) in Feb-Mar of next year, and later in 2023 there will be government shutdowns. No bipartisan legislation will be possible, and over the coming two years, the GOP will remain “the opposition” party — forever against x, y and z, but never really coherent or unified on being for actual a, b or c legislative policies.

Time, obviously, will tell.