My prediction for the final Electoral Results in the 2020 race is an immediate Biden win, called on election night; with an eventual blowout margin at 368 e.c. votes to only 170 e.c. votes for Trump.

Biden’s lead nationally–somewhere around 10% over Trump–when coupled with what appears likely to be a record-setting electoral turnout, will translate into Biden taking most of the battleground states, including FL, NC and GA where he is currently ahead in most models — and Ohio depending on who you ask.

If I am correct, it’s basically all settled Tuesday night. Either NC, FL, or GA should be called on election night, possibly all three decided by midnight, ET. This is how the evening starts and will have a lot to say about the prospect of a quick result.

En route to final calls for these three States, what I’m looking for early on in the Southeast are indicators that Trump is under-performing his final 2016 percentages, by county, in any Southeastern state that should have the quickest results (looking at Delaware, Tennessee, South Carolina and Florida for this) **once 100% precincts have reported** in any given county. (note: I expect an under-performance)

Of particular interest to me, my home state of Florida, and the largest counties outside of Miami-Dade (which is always the last to report):

CountyTrump totals 2016:
Broward County, Florida31.4%
Palm Beach County, Florida41.2%
Hillsborough County, Florida44.7%
Orange County, Florida35.7%
Pinellas County, Florida48.6%
Duval County, Florida49.0%
Lee County, Florida58.7%
Brevard County, Florida57.8%
Polk County, Florida55.4%
Volusia County, Florida54.8%
Pasco County, Florida58.9%
Sarasota County, Florida54.3%
Florida – final vote percentages for Trump in 2016

New Hanover County, North Carolina was tagged by Dave Wasserman as his bellwether county for the state and if it’s good enough for Wasserman… well. In 2016, 49.5% of the vote went for Trump in that county, and NC ended up at 49.8% for the Orange one. North Carolina is expected to start off with a blue mirage on election night, with a dramatic red-shift. NC could be called that night. (If it is not, the subsequent votes that arrive through Nov. 12 will likely favor Biden). Biden is up +2 in the FiveThirtyEight model and that should be enough to get it done on election night.

After the Southeastern states are called or around that time, results from Minnesota and Wisconsin should likely be coming in. Biden will win both by morning, but once GA, NC and FL are in the bag, the question is simply how quickly we can get to 270 and have FOX News call the race for Joe Biden. Assuming one is called (MN, lets say) and the other (WI) is still counting, ten electoral votes are in-hand and Mountain states are up.

In this case, either Arizona, Colorado or New Mexico will race to be the Zombie Bite that ends Trump’s presidency. The first to go blue seals his fate, full stop, and guarantees* Biden reaches 270 no matter what was going on, or will go on, *anywhere* in Maine, *anywhere” in Nebraska, or in Pennsylvania, Iowa, Nevada, Texas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Hawaii (good luck!), Arizona (if Colorado is first) or Ohio. (all of these states I have for Biden, minus Iowa and Texas for what that’s worth)

Straight-up, DJT could ‘keep the change’ at that point and it’d still be over. CA, OR and WA are 74 untouchable shades of blue and my guess is that the map that will call the Presidency will look something like this (though I’m betting Colorado is the Zombie bite) by midnight, Oakland time.

Obviously, so long as Biden wins, I’m good; this is more something I wanted to put down ahead of time as I worked through exactly how I expect election night to go and something to explain my thinking to anyone who asks between now and Tuesday evening.

My final map, to compare against eventual results is as follows:

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